Trading Strategy Statistics Calculator
Is a strategy actually working? Enter the number of winners and losers and the average win and loss to see win rate, expectancy, profit factor and more.
Strategy Statistics
Trades that closed at about zero. They count in the total but not as wins or losses.
Enter as a positive number.
Historical expectancy per trade
+$35.00per trade
Across these 100 trades, each one contributed an average of +$35.00 to the results, +$3,500.00 in total.
A strategy does not need a high win rate to be profitable. Winning 45% of the time works here because the average winner is 2× the average loser.
Results describe the past. A sample of a few dozen trades can look good or bad by chance, costs are not included unless they are in the averages, and none of this predicts future results.
How was this calculated?
- Trades = 45 + 55 = 100; win rate = 45 ÷ 100 = 45%
- Gross profit = 45 × $200.00 = $9,000.00; gross loss = 55 × $100.00 = $5,500.00
- Net result = $9,000.00 − $5,500.00 = +$3,500.00
- Expectancy = +$3,500.00 ÷ 100 trades = +$35.00
- Profit factor = $9,000.00 ÷ $5,500.00 = 1.64
What does this mean?
A strategy is judged by what a large set of trades added up to, not by any single trade. The key numbers are the win rate, the average win and loss, and the expectancy: what the average trade was worth.
A strategy does not need a high win rate to be profitable. A 40% win rate can work well if the winners are much larger than the losers, and a 70% win rate can lose money if the losers are bigger. The break-even win rate shows where the line sits for the payoff ratio in use.
The formula
Win rate = Winners ÷ Trades
Expectancy = (Net profit) ÷ Trades = Win rate × Average win − Loss rate × Average loss
Profit factor = Gross profit ÷ Gross loss
Worked example
100 trades: 45 winners averaging $200 and 55 losers averaging $100. Gross profit is $9,000, gross loss is $5,500, so net profit is $3,500. Expectancy = +$35 per trade, the profit factor is 1.64, and the win rate of 45% sits comfortably above the 33.3% needed at a 2 : 1 payoff.
Frequently asked questions
What is a good win rate in trading?
There is no single good figure. What matters is the win rate together with the average win and loss. The break-even win rate shows the minimum for a given payoff ratio.
What is expectancy?
The average result per trade over a sample, found by dividing the total profit by the number of trades. A positive figure means the sample made money on average.
What is profit factor?
Gross profit divided by gross loss. A value above 1 means the winners outweighed the losers; below 1 means the opposite.
How many trades are needed for the numbers to mean anything?
The more the better. Small samples are easily distorted by luck, so figures from a few dozen trades should be treated with caution and confirmed over a larger sample.
Learn more
This tool is for education and general information only and is not financial advice. Results are estimates that exclude spreads, commissions, swaps and slippage. Trading carries a risk of loss. Preferences you choose, such as your account currency, are remembered only in your own browser.