Trade Expectancy Calculator
Turn your win rate and the size of your average win and loss into one number: what a typical trade has been worth to you.
Expectancy
The share of your trades that were winners.
Enter as a positive number.
Projects the average across a sample.
Converts R into money.
Expectancy per trade
+0.35Rper trade
Across this sample, an average trade returned +0.35R, or 0.35 times the amount you normally risk. Over 100 trades that adds up to +35R.
Expectancy describes results you have already had. It is not a forecast, small samples can be badly misleading, and it ignores costs unless you have included them in your averages.
Profit factor here is the expected gross profit divided by expected gross loss per trade at these averages.
How was this calculated?
- Loss rate = 100% − 45% = 55%
- Expectancy = Win rate × Average win − Loss rate × Average loss
- = 0.45 × 2 − 0.55 × 1 = 0.35R
What does this mean?
Expectancy is the average result per trade over a large sample. Positive expectancy means the strategy has made money on average; negative means it has lost. It combines how often you win with how much you win and lose, which is why it is more useful than win rate alone.
Measuring in R (multiples of the amount you risk per trade) lets you compare strategies regardless of account size. An expectancy of +0.35R means the average trade returned 0.35 times your normal risk.
It describes the past. It does not promise future results, and it needs a decent sample to mean much: a handful of trades can look great or awful by chance.
The formula
Expectancy = (Win rate × Average win) − (Loss rate × Average loss)
Loss rate = 1 − Win rate
Profit factor = (Win rate × Average win) ÷ (Loss rate × Average loss)
Worked example
45% winners averaging 2R and 55% losers averaging 1R: expectancy = 0.45 × 2 − 0.55 × 1 = +0.35R per trade.
In money, a 40% win rate with a $300 average win and a $100 average loss gives 0.4 × 300 − 0.6 × 100 = +$60 per trade, a profitable system despite losing more often than it wins.
Frequently asked questions
What is trading expectancy?
The average amount you expect to make or lose per trade, calculated from your win rate and the average size of your winners and losers. It can be expressed in money or in R multiples.
What is a good expectancy?
Any positive number means the sample made money on average, but how good it is depends on sample size, costs and consistency. Larger samples give more reliable numbers.
Should the average loss be entered as a negative number?
No. Enter it as a positive number: the calculator subtracts it for you.
What is the difference between expectancy and profit factor?
Expectancy is the average result per trade. Profit factor is total winnings divided by total losses. A profit factor above 1 means the winners outweigh the losers.
Learn more
This tool is for education and general information only and is not financial advice. Results are estimates that exclude spreads, commissions, swaps and slippage. Trading carries a risk of loss. Preferences you choose, such as your account currency, are remembered only in your own browser.