Break-Even Win Rate Calculator
How often do you need to win to break even? It depends entirely on your risk-to-reward. Choose a ratio to find the win rate, or a win rate to find the ratio.
Break-Even Win Rate
2 means you aim to make 2 for every 1 you risk (1 : 2).
Break-even win rate
33.3%
At 1 : 2, you need to win more than roughly 33.3% of your trades to have a positive result, before costs. Win less often than that and you lose money over time, however good the winners feel.
| Risk : reward | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| 1 : 0.5 | 66.7% |
| 1 : 1 | 50% |
| 1 : 1.5 | 40% |
| 1 : 2 | 33.3% |
| 1 : 3 | 25% |
| 1 : 5 | 16.7% |
This is the break-even point before spreads, commissions and slippage. Real costs push the win rate you need higher.
How was this calculated?
- Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + R) = 1 ÷ (1 + 2) = 0.3333 (33.33%)
What does this mean?
Win rate alone tells you almost nothing. A strategy that wins 70% of the time can lose money if its losers are much bigger than its winners, and one that wins only 35% can be profitable if its winners are large enough.
The break-even win rate is the point where wins and losses exactly cancel out. Above it you are making money on average; below it you are losing. This figure ignores costs, which move the line against you.
The formula
Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + R)
Required R = (1 − Win rate) ÷ Win rate
At 1 : 1 → 50% · 1 : 2 → 33.3% · 1 : 3 → 25%
Worked example
With a 1 : 2 risk-to-reward, win rate needed = 1 ÷ (1 + 2) = 33.3%. Take 100 trades: 34 winners at +2 and 66 losers at −1 is +68 − 66 = +2 units, so just above break-even. In reverse, a 40% win rate needs (1 − 0.4) ÷ 0.4 = 1.5, a ratio of 1 : 1.5.
Frequently asked questions
What win rate is needed to be profitable?
It depends on your risk-to-reward. At 1 : 1 you need to win more than 50% of trades. At 1 : 2 you need more than 33.3%, and at 1 : 3 more than 25%. Costs raise each of these figures.
Is a high win rate always better?
No. Win rate and reward-to-risk trade off against each other. Judging a strategy on win rate alone can hide a losing system, which is why expectancy looks at both together.
Does this include commissions and spreads?
No. It is the pure break-even point. In practice your break-even win rate is a little higher once costs are included.
Learn more
This tool is for education and general information only and is not financial advice. Results are estimates that exclude spreads, commissions, swaps and slippage. Trading carries a risk of loss. Preferences you choose, such as your account currency, are remembered only in your own browser.